Several studies are addressing the possible extent and impacts of increasing shipping and other activities in the Arctic as a result of reduced ice cover in the Arctic and increasing globalization in the Arctic. The most extensive one so far is probably the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA) under the auspices of the Arctic Council (www.pame.is/amsa). The AMSA 2009 Report is focused on current and future Arctic marine activity.
Lawson Brigham was chair and U.S. co-lead for AMSA from 2005 to 2009. He is also Distinguished Professor of Geography & Arctic Policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks and Senior Fellow at the Institute of the North in Anchorage. Dr. Brigham has a long career in the US Coast Guard that includes commanding officer of a polar icebreaker. We have asked Dr. Brigham to give us some views on the possible future shipping patterns and challenges in the Arctic.
What are the main types of ship traffic in the Arctic today?
As we indicated in AMSA, I would say there are nearly all ship types present in the Arctic Ocean today.....from large fishing vessels to the largest cruise ships on the planet. Major traffic is along the Norwegian coast and in northwest Russia. Year-round traffic between Dudinka on the Yenisey River and Murmansk, and between the Pechora Sea and Murmansk are notable trade routes.
In the summer there are destinational voyages and marine operations throughout the entire region including exploration of the seabed in the central Arctic Ocean. Driving most of this marine activity is Arctic natural resource development and tourism - the linkages of the Arctic to the global economy.
How do you look upon the possibility of the Arctic Ocean becoming a new shipping “highway”?
The Arctic Ocean should already be considered a new ‘highway’ if one does not focus narrowly on trans-Arctic navigation. From environmental protection and marine safety perspectives it does not really matter what the mode of marine transportation is (where the ships are sailing), but whether there are mandatory, international standards for safety.
One can see a new ‘highway’ out of Arctic coastal areas from Norway and Russia to world oil and gas markets. Large and medium size cruise ships are sailing to the west coast of Greenland on a summer ‘highway’ north (and back) to new vistas. New ‘highways’ are possible in and out of the Russian Arctic - for example, the carriage of manufactured materials into the Russian Arctic from Korea and the carriage of natural resources out of the region.
What will be the main shipping activities in the Arctic – transit bringing goods between Asia and Europe/North America or internal traffic, bringing goods to the Arctic settlements and natural resources out?
The words transit shipping and internal traffic are likely confusing terms to many inside and outside of the maritime industry. Trans-Arctic shipping (meaning using the Arctic Ocean as a waterway to bridge the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans) presents many challenges to the international shipping community. It is plausible this type of ocean-to-ocean navigation will be used for specialized cargoes and during short, nearly ice-free summer seasons in the decades ahead.
Most Arctic traffic will likely be destinational and regional, where a ship sails north and performs some activity, such as delivering goods to a community and loading a bulk cargo, and sails out of the Arctic. Cabotage is the historic term for internal traffic (trade between two points within a country) and this form of Arctic navigation occurs along the Alaskan & Greenlandic coasts, in the Canadian Arctic, and along the Russian Arctic coast.
What are the main uncertainties regarding future Arctic navigation, besides the ice conditions?
The main driver of change in the maritime Arctic is globalization and the linkage of the Arctic natural resources to global markets. Uncertainties in global commodity prices of oil & gas, zinc, nickel, copper, tin, and the like will heavily influence the levels of Arctic marine activity. Other key uncertainties include: the timing of governance measures (such as mandatory IMO regulations), the development of Arctic marine infrastructure (ports, communications, aids to navigation, charts & hydrography, environmental response, salvage, and more), new Arctic marine technologies, future Arctic coastal state regulations, current & future marine disasters (such as the ongoing offshore blowout in the Gulf of Mexico), and the overall strength of the global economy.
What are the major political obstacles for safety and security in the Arctic and may the recent agreement between Russia and Norway on the border in the Barents Sea have influence on other political issues in the Arctic?
The legal framework of UNCLOS represents political stability for the entire region and the Arctic Ocean. The major work of IMO in developing suitable Arctic ship regulations, and the work of the ship classification societies in detail design & implementation of those rules, are key stable elements of importance to protecting Arctic people and the marine environment.
The recent agreement between Russia and Norway in their Barents Sea boundary dispute (notably after 40 years of discussions) is an indication of enhanced cooperation in the ‘new maritime Arctic.’ The agreement itself should influence other forms of Arctic cooperation. The Arctic Ocean should not a become an area of conflict or political strife, nor be a region witnessing a free-for-all among many stakeholders.
Date: 05 July 2010