Addressing delegates at the forum hosted by the London Maritime Service Centre, Stephen Gordon, of Clarkson Research, said the world fleet of ice-strengthened ships continues to grow at a phenomenal pace. In the last year, USD4.5bn has been invested in ice-class newbuildings, mostly for high-specification, class-1A equivalent tonnage.
In his address, he predicted that high demand for oil from former Soviet Union states will drive levels of investment in ice class tankers to new heights over the coming decade.
Mushrooming fleet
“High demand, coupled with a rule-driven accelerated phasing out of older single hull ships, pointed to the ice class fleet growing to 18m by 2008,” he said.
Clarkson Research studies have identified 262 Ice Class 1A ships as operational today, equivalent to 4.2m dwt, with 70%-80% of them under 20,000dwt.
“Our survey reveals that there are 234 vessels with ice strengthening on order. Some 165 are ice-class 1A and three are ice-class 1A Super.
Gordon also went into detail on Russian export forecasts, as well as maximum winter-ice thickness and ice-class requirements for different areas.
Shuttle-tanker network
“There is a debate about how to develop the crude oil network in the Artic,” he said. “The most likely development looks to shuttle through Murmansk”.
Dr. Igor V. Stepanov, well respected and leading research scientist at the Artic and Antarctic Research Institute, also gave an interesting presentation covering the design and operational challenges faced by large vessels in Russian cold climate operations.
Based on general commercial considerations, bigger vessels are considered more competitive for a number of new shipborne transportations,” but warned “there is however little experience of such vessels in ice-infested waters.
He emphasised that the technical challenges can be overcome and that full-scale trials are the most reliable basis for the development of procedures for assessment of ice performance and ice loads for large vessels.
Additional class notations
Wilhelm Magelssen, head of DNV Maritime’s business and marketing department, also shared his views on ‘winterisation’ aspects of operating in cold climates.
“With the opening up of new arctic trade routes that encompass cold climates and heavier weather than before, we predict that ships in the future will most likely be specified with additional class notations to minimise risks and the environmental impact of shipping.”
The forum also included a presentation from the insurance industry by Gard on the owner’s responsibilities and potential liabilities related to operating in cold climates. Martime Solution’s Steve Goodwin rounded off the day with a lively presentation on human performance in cold environments.
Cold climate partner
“Feedback from the delegates, including oil majors, has been extremely positive. Many have left with a better understanding of how DNV can make a real difference as their partner in managing cold climate risks,” said organiser Martin Crawford-Brunt, manager of the London Maritime Service Centre.
One-third of all DNV-classed tankers currently on order are specified with ice-strengthening, and this proportion seems to be increasing.
