The world’s population is growing fast, resulting in young populations in many developing countries. At the same time, populations in the developed world are greying. Positive economic development will result in increased urbanisation and migration, which in turn will fuel development even further. Trading blocks, together with new economies in countries like India, China, and Brazil, will increase in importance.
These countries will have a quite young population structure with almost 40% below 20 years and just 7% above age 65. In contrast, developed nations will have only half as many young but nearly 3 times more elderly in their population. For instance, the fraction of elderly >75 years will have increased by 33% in Germany and by 36% in Japan by 2015. Further growth in life expectancy can be expected through improvements in medical technology, life-style changes, and income growth.
While many developed nations will struggle with challenges related to an aging society such as pensions, employment, health care and international migration, less developed countries will strive to provide education, basic infrastructure and work to their growing population.
Urbanisation
Already today the majority of people are no longer domiciled in rural, but in densely populated urban areas. Whilst this has been the de-facto condition of the developed world for several decades, given the relationships between socio-economic development and urbanisation, city-dwelling populations are now expanding rapidly in developing regions too. This change is due both to urbanisation of rural settlements, and rural to urban migration which will dominate in poorer African and Asian countries. The future population growth will therefore significantly affect the establishment of large cities (over 1 million) and mega-cities (over 10 million). In these population centres much of the economic activities will occur.
With growing economy comes a higher income which in turn affects the traditional food consumption pattern. Food preferences changes towards fruit and meat which directly affects water and feed usage in agriculture.
From 2007 onwards the majority of the worlds population will live in urban areas.
International Migration
International migration has more than doubled since 1960. In 2005 it reached the unprecedented level of 191 million, corresponding to a movement of approximately 3% of the world’s population. Following a 10-year trend, the majority of migrants originate from less developed countries, and migrate to developed countries. Such migrants constitute a larger proportion of the population in developed regions now than in 1960.
The pattern of international migration is not expected to change for the next decade. By the middle of this century, by far the largest pool of working-age non-employed is predicted to live in less developed countries, especially in Africa and Asia, and most prominently in India, which is forecast to outnumber China in total population size. There will be considerable pressures for these individuals to migrate to richer countries as, despite continuous GDP convergence, income differentials are likely to remain very wide for both skilled and unskilled workers. This is also evident in south-south relations, as demonstrated by the large numbers of Chinese workers domiciled around the world, particularly in Africa.
Migration will contribute to fill employment voids in the developed world (in addition to offshoring of work), underlining the emerging importance for organisations to attract global talent. The remittance of international migrants to the economy of their countries of origin will continue to be a very important contribution. In 2004 these sources of capital are estimated to have been in the order of US$116 billion, but as these flows generally use informal channels, the estimates might account for less than 50% of the actual flows.
Future Governance
Globalisation is thriving, and its impact is felt in companies, states and people worldwide. The consequent integration between national economies, cultures, technologies and governance produces a complex web of mutual interdependency.
The emergence of new international norms and regulations (e.g. human rights and environmental protection) and the growth in multi-layered governance will continue. Nations will further dilute their authority to regional trade blocks (e.g. EU, NAFTA, ASEAN), and to international bodies (e.g. WTO, UN, NATO, WB). In parallel, privatisation and deregulation will strengthen the influence of non-governmental institutions (NGOs) who address voids in the provision of social care and welfare. NGOs are therefore becoming progressively more important players in the societal environment and political landscape.
Future governance will be characterised by the interaction between governments, NGOs, the private sector, and international organisations, and their ability to create innovative, dynamic and strategic partnerships between and amongst themselves. In addition, this fragmented dilution of decision-making and policy-making will be heavily influenced by the emerging global heavyweights, such as India and China, as well as other countries including Brazil, Russia, and South Africa.
The “Risk Society”
The evolution of a global society has also resulted in a common risk society characterised by enhanced risk awareness following natural disasters, global warming, pollution, bio-risks such as global pandemics, or acts of terrorism. This awareness is further driven by the media coverage of these events and by uncertainties associated with global governance, i.e. accountability, transparency. A densely populated and interconnected world will increasingly lead to dilemmas where a measures intended to relieve one threat may lead to negative consequences in other areas. The conversion to more environmentally-friendly energy sources will certainly result in some negative effects on households or agricultural industry. In the years to come more focus will therefore be on understanding the increased complexity of risk and the potentials for mitigation.
Date: 14 March 2008